(BW)(CT-IMS-HEALTH)(RX)IMS Health公司预测，2007年全球制药市场将有5％到6％的增长

不断变化的市场动力将拉动新兴市场、生物技术、肿瘤学、学名药（或称通用名药物）领域的强劲增长

美国商业新闻2006年10月24日康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德消息——

IMS Health公司（艾美仕公司，纽约证券交易所：RX）为制药和保健行业提供市场智力资源，是该领域全球领先提供商。公司今天发布预测，认为，在不断变化的市场动力的影响下，市场持续调整，寻找新的平衡点；预计2007年全球制药市场增长率为5％到6％，与之相比，2006年水平则为6％到7％。根据IMS公司发布的《2007年制药市场预测》（2007 Pharmaceutical Market Forecast），全球制药业明年的销售额将扩大到$6650－6850亿美元。

IMS公司企业战略部高级副总裁Murray Aitken说，“2007年，市场仍有能力应对开创了新的经济局面的种种变化，在这种环境下，经济增长的地域正从成熟市场逐渐集中到新兴市场；新产品的应用不足以弥补成熟产品专利保护的损失；特制产品和特定的产品的影响越来越大；监管人员、付款人和消费者权衡医药品利弊因素的时候更加小心了。”

制药市场的区域平衡重心从美国市场转移到全球的新兴市场，这种变化一直在持续。新兴市场是指人均国民总收入低于$20,000美元的国家，目前占全球市场17％的份额，不过明年，这些国家将带来30％的增长。在新兴市场，保健服务逐渐普及；过去在发达国家更为常见的慢性疾病的相关治疗需求也迅速扩大。

美国市场增幅放慢，预计2007年美国市场的贡献将占全球市场增长的36％，与五年前54％的贡献率相比，明年的水平将有明显的回落；新兴市场的增长将起到弥补的作用。

预计明年推出的新产品数量为25－35种，与今年30种的预期水平相当。然而，制药公司为了满足专门市场的需求，倾向于开发更多特制产品和专门治疗产品，因此，与往年相比，新产品对整个市场扩张所起的作用也减弱了。此外，老产品专利保护会失去效力，而新产品市场推广的速度却没有相应的赶上来。2006年，价值$230亿美元的产品将失去专利保护，在此基础上，预计2007年，价值$160亿美元以上的市场流通产品有可能失去专利保护。

2007年，几个细分市场的需求可望再创新高，尤其是生物技术领域，增长率预计可达到13－14％；专科医生创立的（specialist-initiated）产品，增长率可望达到10－11％；学名药市场增长率预计为13－14％。学名药市场的增长得益于多个关键治疗领域的机遇，以及实施成本控制所带来的产量扩大。

畅销药品总数将在2005年的基础上（94项）继续增加，2007年可望达到112项。2007年，潜在的畅销新产品将是，用于治疗精神分裂症的paliperidone，用于治疗抑郁症的desvenlafaxine和用于治疗糖尿病的vildagliptin。

Aitken说，“公、私付款人限制药费支出，毫无疑问，来自这方面的压力是改变全球市场增长的最强大力量。由于他们的影响，因需求扩大和创新而产生的增长被削弱了。生产商必须不断增强产品的说服力，要证明他们的治疗产品有直接的疗效，确实‘物有所值’。”

分区域预测

美国地区，2007年市场增长率将减缓，预计为4－5％的水平，2006年预计增长率则为6－7％。在“Medicare处方药物保险计划”（Medicare Part D）处方药的有利影响下，全美市场2006年增长近1％，处方集仍较为宽松，2007年全年可望再度增长1－2％。然而，在2006年总值达$190亿美元的产品专利失效之后，明年总价值达$100亿美元的几项关键品牌也将失去专利保护，这将显著影响明年的美国市场。新产品带来的市场增长不足以补偿“专利药”（branded drug）转为“学名药”（generics drugs）的数量。

欧洲地区，从五大市场（法国、德国、英国、意大利和西班牙）整体来看，预计将增长3－4％，与2006年4－5％的预期增长速度相比有所下滑。这些国家老龄人口的需求有所增加，当地鼓励使用学名药，采取成本控制措施，对药物的成本/疗效更加细致的检查，这些都影响了市场的增长。

在日本市场，由于政府2006年4月1日执行两年一次的价格削减，今年预计将增长1－2％；2007年，预计日本市场增长率可达到5－6％，与2006年相比有所增长。

包括中国、印度、巴西和土耳其在内的新兴市场，2006年增长10％以上；由于这些国家经济继续增长，患者获取药物的途径更加宽广，2007年，这几个新兴市场也将继续维持这一发展速度。2007年，中国市场将增长15－16％，市场规模将达到$150－160亿美元。总体来说，本地生产的学名药占据了这些市场。

治疗类别

人口老龄化和诊断质量的提高扩大了肿瘤治疗的需求，医药行业推出众多有效的创新产品迎接这一挑战。科学改变了疾病的状况；治愈率在不断提高，一些癌症现在被视为慢性疾病，甚至是可以预防的。

2007年，用于肿瘤疾病治疗的产品，市场规模预计可达到$400－450亿美元，占市场总体增长的20％左右。Aitken表示，“2007年，随着治疗手段日渐丰富，更多患者可以接受治疗，肿瘤疾病治疗市场将快速扩大。不过，由于付款人要应付高昂的成本，肿瘤治疗产品最终还是要受到价格紧缩和用量参数的限制。”

主要治疗类别之中，降脂类药物（包括他汀类药物、Zetia(R)和Vytorin(R)）2007年预计将增长到$300－330亿美元的规模，增长率为1－2％，与今年7－8％的水平相比有所下降。2006年，辛伐他汀（商品名Zocor(R)）和普伐他汀（商品名Pravachol(R)）失去专利保护，这将继续影响增长，尽管如此，公众对降脂类药剂的药效加深了解，患者监测的范围更广，并且有新的组合疗法出现——这三方面的因素将继续拉动需求的增长。

给生产商的启示

Aitken评论说，“制药企业为了响应市场的挑战，已经开始进行自我调整，与五年前相比，他们现在看起来大不相同。但是，光是快速响应还不够，要想成功，企业必须超越改变市场格局的那个力量。这就要求企业紧密结合基于市场预测而作出的规划，要比以往投入更多精力，证明药品的价值，通过销售和营销费用提高生产率。”

关于本次预测

2007年市场与治疗业绩预测以IMS公司咨询预测专家的深入分析为依据。本次预测使用了IMS Market Prognosis（《IMS市场预测》，一本有关战略市场预测的出版物）以及IMS Therapy Forecaster（基于翔实的定量和定性方法的独特预测系统）。这两项工具结合使用，能够对全球大型市场和最重要的新兴市场的制药和保健领域的发展趋势做出最准确的判断，而且，预测方法在统计学方面也无懈可击。

本次预测通盘考虑了影响制药和保健行业的诸多关键问题。其它可能影响整体增长的因素包括：重大的安全事件导致产品退出市场或引发处方限制；监管审批标准与目前水平产生差异；突然降低药物开支水平；公共健康危机（如禽流感病毒）。为了避免货币汇率影响，一直采用美元计算增长数字。销售额按照出厂价计算。

关于IMS公司

IMS Health公司业务遍及100多个国家，是制药和保健行业全球领先的市场智力资源提供商。2005年，IMS公司收入达$18亿美元；这家拥有50多年历史的企业提供一流的商业智力产品和服务，满足客户的日常经营需求，其中包括：产品组合优化服务；产品上市和品牌管理解决方案；销售人员效率创新；管理式医疗（managed care）和非处方（OTC）产品，以及咨询和服务解决方案，能够提高全球优质保健服务的投资回报率，改善产品供应水平。如需了解更多信息，请访问： http://www.imshealth.com 。

联系方式：IMS公司沟通部

Barbara Henderson，610-260-6639

bphenderson@us.imshealth.com

或者

Lance Longwell，610-834-5338

llongwell@us.imshealth.com

( BW)(CT-IMS-HEALTH)(RX) IMS Health Forecasts 5 to 6 Percent Growth for Global Pharmaceutical Market in 2007

Changing Market Dynamics to Drive Robust Growth in Emerging Markets, Biotechnology, Oncology, Generics

FAIRFIELD, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 24, 2006--

IMS Health (NYSE: RX), the world's leading provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries, today announced that it expects global pharmaceutical market growth of 5 - 6 percent for 2007, compared with 6 - 7 percent in 2006, as the market continues to rebalance in light of changing market dynamics. According to IMS's 2007 Pharmaceutical Market Forecast, global pharmaceutical sales will expand to US$665 - 685 billion next year.

"In 2007, the market still will be absorbing changes that have defined a new economic reality, one in which growth is shifting from mature markets to emerging ones; new product adoption is not keeping pace with the loss of patent protection by established products; specialty and niche products are playing a larger role; and regulators, payers and consumers are more carefully weighing the risk/benefit factors of pharmaceuticals," said Murray Aitken, senior vice president, Corporate Strategy, IMS.

The geographic balance of the pharmaceutical market continues to shift away from the U.S. toward the world's emerging markets--countries with a per-capita Gross National Income of less than $20,000. These countries currently represent 17 percent of the global market, but will contribute 30 percent of growth next year. In emerging markets, the availability of healthcare is expanding, and the need for treatments associated with chronic diseases more typically found in developed countries is rapidly increasing.

Growth in the emerging markets is offsetting the slower growth coming from the U.S. market, which will contribute about 36 percent of total market growth in 2007, significantly less than the 54 percent it contributed five years earlier.

The number of new product launches next year is expected to be in the range of 25 to 35, comparable to this year's expected 30 launches. However, with pharmaceutical companies increasingly developing specialty products and treatments to serve niche markets, new products are contributing less to overall market expansion than they have in the past. Moreover, market expansion from new products is not keeping pace with the loss of patent protection by older products. In 2007, marketed products with a value over $16 billion will likely lose patent protection, which comes on top of $23 billion of products that lost protection in 2006.

Several sectors of the market are expected to register high levels of demand in 2007, particularly biotechnology, with estimated growth of 13 - 14 percent, specialist-initiated products with 10 - 11 percent growth, and the generics market with 13 - 14 percent growth. In the generics sector, growth is stemming from opportunity in several key therapeutic areas and increased volume driven by cost-control initiatives.

The total number of blockbuster products continues to grow and is expected to reach 112 in 2007, up from 94 in 2005. In 2007, the potential blockbuster products launched will be paliperidone for schizophrenia, desvenlafaxine for depression and vildagliptin for diabetes.

"Undoubtedly, the most powerful force rebalancing growth in the worldwide market is pressure from public and private payers to limit their expenditures on drugs," said Aitken. "Their influence is offsetting much of the growth that stems from rising demand and innovation. Manufacturers increasingly must strengthen the evidence that their therapies deliver 'value for the money' based on direct health outcomes."

Regional Forecasts

In the U.S., 2007 market growth is forecast to slow to 4 - 5 percent, compared to 6 - 7 percent expected in 2006. The Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit has expanded the overall U.S. market by nearly one percent in 2006, with a further uplift of 1 - 2 percent expected through 2007 while formularies remain relatively unrestricted. However, the loss of patent protection for several key brands valued at $10 billion will significantly impact the U.S. market next year, following the patent expiry of $19 billion in branded products in 2006. Growth from new products will not be sufficient to offset the volume of branded drugs that shift to generics.

In Europe, the top five markets (France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain) combined are forecast to grow 3 - 4 percent, down from the 4 - 5 percent pace expected in 2006. While these countries see increased demand from an aging population, growth is being affected by cost-containment measures, incentives for using generics and increased scrutiny of the cost/benefit of drugs.

The Japan market is forecast to grow 5 - 6 percent in 2007, up from an estimated 1 - 2 percent this year that resulted from the government's biennial price cuts imposed on April 1, 2006.

Emerging markets, including China, India, Brazil and Turkey, are growing over 10 percent in 2006 and will do so again in 2007, largely due to their growing economies and broader access to medications. Growth in China will be 15 - 16 percent and the market size will reach $15 - 16 billion in 2007. Generally, locally manufactured generics dominate these markets.

Therapeutic Classes

An aging population and improved diagnostics have increased demand for oncology treatment--a challenge that the industry has met with a strong flow of innovation. Science has changed the face of the disease; survival rates are improving and some cancers are now considered chronic illnesses or even preventable conditions.

Products used in the treatment of oncology are expected to reach $40 - 45 billion in value in 2007, contributing nearly 20 percent of total market growth. "Through 2007, this class will expand rapidly as more patients gain access to treatment from a growing range of therapies," noted Aitken. "But oncology products will eventually be subject to tighter pricing and usage parameters as payers deal with their mounting costs."

Among other major therapy classes, the lipid-lowering class (including statins as well as Zetia(R) and Vytorin(R)) will grow to $30 to 33 billion, reflecting an estimated 1 - 2 percent growth in 2007, down from 7 - 8 percent this year. While the 2006 patent losses for simvastatin (Zocor(R)) and pravastatin (Pravachol(R)) will continue to affect growth, increased public awareness of the efficacy of lipid-lowering agents, broader patient screening and new combination therapies will continue to drive demand.

Implications for Manufacturers

"Pharmaceutical companies have started to reinvent themselves in response to market challenges, and they look very different than they did just five years ago," commented Aitken. "But it is no longer enough just to be responsive. To succeed, companies need to get ahead of the dynamics that are rebalancing the market. This requires a greater reliance on scenario-based planning, a sharper focus on realizing productivity gains from sales and marketing expenditures, and proving the value of medications as never before."

About the Forecast

The 2007 forecast for market and therapy performance is based on extensive analyses by IMS consulting and forecasting experts. It uses IMS Market Prognosis, a strategic market forecasting publication, and IMS Therapy Forecaster, a unique forecasting system based on detailed quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Combined, these two tools deliver the most accurate and statistically robust insight into pharmaceutical and healthcare trends in the world's largest markets and most important emerging ones.

The forecasts take full account of key issues impacting the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. Additional factors that may affect overall growth include major safety events resulting in product withdrawal or prescribing restrictions; shifts in regulatory approval standards from their current levels; the application of sudden cuts to drug spending levels; and public health crises such as the Avian flu. Growth is measured in constant dollars to avoid the influence of currency exchange rates; sales are calculated at the ex-manufacturer level.

About IMS

Operating in more than 100 countries, IMS Health is the world's leading provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. With $1.8 billion in 2005 revenue and more than 50 years of industry experience, IMS offers leading-edge business intelligence products and services that are integral to clients'

day-to-day operations, including portfolio optimization capabilities; launch and brand management solutions; sales force effectiveness innovations; managed care and over-the-counter offerings; and consulting and services solutions that improve ROI and the delivery of quality healthcare worldwide. Additional information is available at http://www.imshealth.com.

CONTACT: IMS Communications Barbara Henderson, 610-260-6639 bphenderson@us.imshealth.com or Lance Longwell, 610-834-5338 llongwell@us.imshealth.com